Signal Ocean Data Highlights a March 2025 Spike in Aframax Voyages to the Far East
Updated voyage data from Signal Ocean shows that Aframax tanker shipments from Russia’s Pacific ports to the Far East saw a notable month-over-month increase in March 2025, despite a slight year-over-year decline compared to March 2024.
Key Observations: Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024
In March 2025, a total of 44 Aframax voyages were recorded discharging in the Far East, marking a sharp 41.94% increase compared to February 2025. This significant month-on-month rise suggests a tactical end-of-quarter push in exports, likely in response to shifting market conditions and geopolitical signals. However, when viewed year-on-year, the figure reflects a modest decline of 8.33% compared to the 48 voyages logged in March 2024, indicating that broader export activity remains somewhat restrained despite mounting political pressure, particularly from the United States. Looking at the full quarter, Q1 2025 showed slightly lower activity than Q1 2024 overall. While March saw a rebound in shipments, the cumulative voyage data points to a more measured start to the year. This implies that the March increase was likely a short-term tactical adjustment, rather than part of a sustained upward trend.
Drivers Behind the March 2025 Surge
Geopolitical Pressure: U.S. Threatens Tariffs
In late March 2025, the United States escalated its stance on Russian energy exports by reiterating threats to impose secondary sanctions and steep tariffs—ranging from 25% to 50%—on international buyers of Russian crude. This geopolitical development likely triggered a tactical response from both Russian exporters and Asian refiners, who moved swiftly to secure cargoes ahead of any policy implementation. While the year-on-year export volumes dipped slightly in March, the sharp month-on-month increase suggests that the tariff threat played a significant role in the end-of-quarter surge, as market participants sought to front-run potential disruptions to trade flows.
Oil Market Volatility: Brent Falls Below $60
The late-March voyage spike also coincided with heightened market volatility, particularly as Brent crude prices fell below $60 per barrel for the first time since early 2021. This drop followed OPEC+’s unexpected decision to raise output, which pressured global benchmarks and raised concerns about an oversupplied market. In anticipation of further price deterioration, Russian exporters likely front-loaded shipments in March to capitalize on relatively stronger pricing. The increase in Aframax voyages during this period suggests a deliberate effort to move volumes quickly before the market fully priced in the new supply dynamics.
Looking ahead
Although March 2025 did not surpass March 2024 in overall voyage count, the observed surge highlights the Aframax segment’s acute sensitivity to short-term shifts in policy and pricing. These vessels remain central to Russia’s Pacific export strategy, notably as sanctions have reshaped traditional trade routes.
Signal Ocean’s granular voyage data provides valuable real-time insight into these shifts, revealing how operators recalibrate flows in response to both geopolitical pressure and market fundamentals—even when longer-term trends appear flat or subdued.
Signal Ocean's real-time voyage data offers valuable insight into how operators adjust flows in response to geopolitical pressure and market fundamentals.
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Creating a sustainable world requires us to embark on a journey towards a zero emission future, where every step is a commitment to preserve our planet for future generations.
Albert Greenway
Environmental Scientist, Sustainability Expert
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Increased Use of Renewable Energy:
Shipping companies are embracing renewable energy sources to power onboard systems and reduce emissions during port operations. Solar panels and wind turbines are being installed on vessels to generate clean energy, reducing reliance on auxiliary engines, and cutting down emissions. Shore power facilities in ports allow ships to connect to the electrical grid, eliminating the need for onboard generators while docked.
Collaboration and Industry Partnerships:
Recognizing that addressing emissions requires collective action, shipping companies, governments, and organizations have formed partnerships and collaborations. These initiatives focus on research and development, sharing best practices, and promoting knowledge transfer. Joint projects aim to develop and deploy innovative technologies, improve infrastructure, and create a supportive regulatory framework to accelerate the industry's transition towards a greener future. The Zero Emission Shipping - Mission Innovation.
To pave the way for a greener future in shipping, the availability of alternative fuels plays a vital role in their widespread adoption. However, this availability is influenced by factors such as port infrastructure, local regulations, and government policies. As the demand for cleaner fuels in shipping rises and environmental regulations become more stringent, efforts are underway to improve the accessibility of these fuels through infrastructure development, collaborations, and investments in production facilities.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) infrastructure has seen significant growth in recent years, resulting in more LNG bunkering facilities and LNG-powered vessels. Nonetheless, the availability of LNG as a marine fuel can still vary depending on the region. To ensure consistent availability worldwide, there is a need for further development of LNG supply chains and infrastructure. For biofuels, their availability hinges on production capacity and the availability of feedstock. Although biofuels are being produced and utilized in various sectors, their availability as a marine fuel remains limited. Scaling up biofuel production and establishing robust supply chains are imperative to ensure wider availability within the shipping industry.Hydrogen, as a fuel for maritime applications, is still in the early stages of infrastructure development. While some hydrogen vessels have been tested or introduced in the first quarter of last year, the infrastructure required for hydrogen production and distribution needs further advancement.
Ammonia, as a marine fuel, currently faces limitations in availability. The production, storage, and handling infrastructure for ammonia need further development to support its widespread use in the shipping industry.Methanol, on the other hand, is already a commercially available fuel and has been used as a blend with conventional fuels in some ships. However, its availability as a standalone marine fuel can still be limited in certain regions. Bureau Veritas in October 2022 published a White Paper for the Alternative Fuels Outlook. This white paper provides a comprehensive overview of alternative fuels for the shipping industry, taking into account key factors such as technological maturity, availability, safety, emissions, and regulations.
Creating a sustainable world requires us to embark on a journey towards a zero emission future, where every step is a commitment to preserve our planet for future generations.
Albert Greenway
Environmental Scientist, Sustainability Expert
Increased Use of Renewable Energy:
Shipping companies are embracing renewable energy sources to power onboard systems and reduce emissions during port operations. Solar panels and wind turbines are being installed on vessels to generate clean energy, reducing reliance on auxiliary engines, and cutting down emissions. Shore power facilities in ports allow ships to connect to the electrical grid, eliminating the need for onboard generators while docked.
Collaboration and Industry Partnerships:
Recognizing that addressing emissions requires collective action, shipping companies, governments, and organizations have formed partnerships and collaborations. These initiatives focus on research and development, sharing best practices, and promoting knowledge transfer. Joint projects aim to develop and deploy innovative technologies, improve infrastructure, and create a supportive regulatory framework to accelerate the industry's transition towards a greener future. The Zero Emission Shipping - Mission Innovation.
To pave the way for a greener future in shipping, the availability of alternative fuels plays a vital role in their widespread adoption. However, this availability is influenced by factors such as port infrastructure, local regulations, and government policies. As the demand for cleaner fuels in shipping rises and environmental regulations become more stringent, efforts are underway to improve the accessibility of these fuels through infrastructure development, collaborations, and investments in production facilities.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) infrastructure has seen significant growth in recent years, resulting in more LNG bunkering facilities and LNG-powered vessels. Nonetheless, the availability of LNG as a marine fuel can still vary depending on the region. To ensure consistent availability worldwide, there is a need for further development of LNG supply chains and infrastructure. For biofuels, their availability hinges on production capacity and the availability of feedstock. Although biofuels are being produced and utilized in various sectors, their availability as a marine fuel remains limited. Scaling up biofuel production and establishing robust supply chains are imperative to ensure wider availability within the shipping industry.Hydrogen, as a fuel for maritime applications, is still in the early stages of infrastructure development. While some hydrogen vessels have been tested or introduced in the first quarter of last year, the infrastructure required for hydrogen production and distribution needs further advancement.
Ammonia, as a marine fuel, currently faces limitations in availability. The production, storage, and handling infrastructure for ammonia need further development to support its widespread use in the shipping industry.Methanol, on the other hand, is already a commercially available fuel and has been used as a blend with conventional fuels in some ships. However, its availability as a standalone marine fuel can still be limited in certain regions. Bureau Veritas in October 2022 published a White Paper for the Alternative Fuels Outlook. This white paper provides a comprehensive overview of alternative fuels for the shipping industry, taking into account key factors such as technological maturity, availability, safety, emissions, and regulations.
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