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This week's analysis focuses on the volume of dirty oil flows from the Arabian Gulf (AG) to the Far East and Europe, highlighting key trends and regional differences.
In recent months, the global oil market has experienced notable shifts, particularly in the dynamics of dirty tanker flows from the Arabian Gulf (AG) to both Europe and the Far East/India. These changes are intricately linked to fluctuations in crude oil prices and projections of a tightening global oil supply.
Dirty Tanker Flows: AG to Far East/India vs. Europe
The chart above illustrates the dirty oil flow of the ArabianGulf(AG) to the Far East/India and Europe, comparing data from 2024 (gray bars) and 2025 (blue bars). The trends indicate differences in demand and distribution patterns across these two key regions, with notable variations in early 2025.
In the Far East/India, oil flows in 2024 remained relatively stable, consistently maintaining high volumes throughout the year's first half. The 2025 data, however, shows a noticeable decline in March, suggesting a potential disruption or shift in market demand. Despite this, the overall trend suggests that the Far East/India remains a strong and stable market for AG crude.
In contrast, the European market displays a more pronounced downward trend. While 2024 saw healthy and relatively stable volumes, particularly in January, February, and May, the 2025 data show significantly lower volumes across all available months. The most notable declines appear in March and potentially in April, where the 2025 volumes are considerably weaker compared to the previous year. This could indicate a shift in European energy policies, greater reliance on alternative suppliers (such as the US or Africa), or changes in refinery preferences. Additionally, geopolitical factors, sanctions, or economic slowdowns could be contributing to this reduction in AG crude imports.
Impact of Crude Oil Price Fluctuations
The crude oil market has been marked by volatility, influenced by geopolitical developments and supply-demand dynamics. As of March 19, 2025, Brent crude oil is trading at approximately $70.88 per barrel. This price point reflects a balance between supply concerns and demand projections.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that global oil markets will remain relatively tight until mid-2025. This projection is based on anticipated declines in global oil inventories, driven partly by reduced crude oil production in countries like Iran and Venezuela. Consequently, the EIA expects Brent crude oil prices to rise to about $75 per barrel by the third quarter of 2025.
Regional Strategies Amid Supply Uncertainty
In the face of potential supply constraints, the Far East, particularly China and India, has adopted a proactive approach. By increasing imports from the AG, these nations aim to bolster their reserves and mitigate risks associated with supply disruptions. This strategy underscores their intent to maintain economic momentum and energy security.
Conversely, Europe's conservative posture reflects a wait-and-see approach. European markets appear to monitor the evolution of oil prices and supply conditions before making substantial procurement decisions. This cautious strategy may be influenced by economic growth concerns and the desire to avoid overcommitting in a volatile market.
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Creating a sustainable world requires us to embark on a journey towards a zero emission future, where every step is a commitment to preserve our planet for future generations.
Albert Greenway
Environmental Scientist, Sustainability Expert
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Increased Use of Renewable Energy:
Shipping companies are embracing renewable energy sources to power onboard systems and reduce emissions during port operations. Solar panels and wind turbines are being installed on vessels to generate clean energy, reducing reliance on auxiliary engines, and cutting down emissions. Shore power facilities in ports allow ships to connect to the electrical grid, eliminating the need for onboard generators while docked.
Collaboration and Industry Partnerships:
Recognizing that addressing emissions requires collective action, shipping companies, governments, and organizations have formed partnerships and collaborations. These initiatives focus on research and development, sharing best practices, and promoting knowledge transfer. Joint projects aim to develop and deploy innovative technologies, improve infrastructure, and create a supportive regulatory framework to accelerate the industry's transition towards a greener future. The Zero Emission Shipping - Mission Innovation.
To pave the way for a greener future in shipping, the availability of alternative fuels plays a vital role in their widespread adoption. However, this availability is influenced by factors such as port infrastructure, local regulations, and government policies. As the demand for cleaner fuels in shipping rises and environmental regulations become more stringent, efforts are underway to improve the accessibility of these fuels through infrastructure development, collaborations, and investments in production facilities.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) infrastructure has seen significant growth in recent years, resulting in more LNG bunkering facilities and LNG-powered vessels. Nonetheless, the availability of LNG as a marine fuel can still vary depending on the region. To ensure consistent availability worldwide, there is a need for further development of LNG supply chains and infrastructure. For biofuels, their availability hinges on production capacity and the availability of feedstock. Although biofuels are being produced and utilized in various sectors, their availability as a marine fuel remains limited. Scaling up biofuel production and establishing robust supply chains are imperative to ensure wider availability within the shipping industry.Hydrogen, as a fuel for maritime applications, is still in the early stages of infrastructure development. While some hydrogen vessels have been tested or introduced in the first quarter of last year, the infrastructure required for hydrogen production and distribution needs further advancement.
Ammonia, as a marine fuel, currently faces limitations in availability. The production, storage, and handling infrastructure for ammonia need further development to support its widespread use in the shipping industry.Methanol, on the other hand, is already a commercially available fuel and has been used as a blend with conventional fuels in some ships. However, its availability as a standalone marine fuel can still be limited in certain regions. Bureau Veritas in October 2022 published a White Paper for the Alternative Fuels Outlook. This white paper provides a comprehensive overview of alternative fuels for the shipping industry, taking into account key factors such as technological maturity, availability, safety, emissions, and regulations.
Creating a sustainable world requires us to embark on a journey towards a zero emission future, where every step is a commitment to preserve our planet for future generations.
Albert Greenway
Environmental Scientist, Sustainability Expert
Increased Use of Renewable Energy:
Shipping companies are embracing renewable energy sources to power onboard systems and reduce emissions during port operations. Solar panels and wind turbines are being installed on vessels to generate clean energy, reducing reliance on auxiliary engines, and cutting down emissions. Shore power facilities in ports allow ships to connect to the electrical grid, eliminating the need for onboard generators while docked.
Collaboration and Industry Partnerships:
Recognizing that addressing emissions requires collective action, shipping companies, governments, and organizations have formed partnerships and collaborations. These initiatives focus on research and development, sharing best practices, and promoting knowledge transfer. Joint projects aim to develop and deploy innovative technologies, improve infrastructure, and create a supportive regulatory framework to accelerate the industry's transition towards a greener future. The Zero Emission Shipping - Mission Innovation.
To pave the way for a greener future in shipping, the availability of alternative fuels plays a vital role in their widespread adoption. However, this availability is influenced by factors such as port infrastructure, local regulations, and government policies. As the demand for cleaner fuels in shipping rises and environmental regulations become more stringent, efforts are underway to improve the accessibility of these fuels through infrastructure development, collaborations, and investments in production facilities.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) infrastructure has seen significant growth in recent years, resulting in more LNG bunkering facilities and LNG-powered vessels. Nonetheless, the availability of LNG as a marine fuel can still vary depending on the region. To ensure consistent availability worldwide, there is a need for further development of LNG supply chains and infrastructure. For biofuels, their availability hinges on production capacity and the availability of feedstock. Although biofuels are being produced and utilized in various sectors, their availability as a marine fuel remains limited. Scaling up biofuel production and establishing robust supply chains are imperative to ensure wider availability within the shipping industry.Hydrogen, as a fuel for maritime applications, is still in the early stages of infrastructure development. While some hydrogen vessels have been tested or introduced in the first quarter of last year, the infrastructure required for hydrogen production and distribution needs further advancement.
Ammonia, as a marine fuel, currently faces limitations in availability. The production, storage, and handling infrastructure for ammonia need further development to support its widespread use in the shipping industry.Methanol, on the other hand, is already a commercially available fuel and has been used as a blend with conventional fuels in some ships. However, its availability as a standalone marine fuel can still be limited in certain regions. Bureau Veritas in October 2022 published a White Paper for the Alternative Fuels Outlook. This white paper provides a comprehensive overview of alternative fuels for the shipping industry, taking into account key factors such as technological maturity, availability, safety, emissions, and regulations.
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