Back to Weekly Market Monitors

Weekly Dry Market Monitor: Week 48, 2024

Shifting Capesize Ballaster Trends: South Atlantic Declines vs. West Australian Gains

Dry bulk
November 28, 2024

This week’s highlight delves into the evolving dynamics of Capesize ballasters in the South Atlantic and West Australian markets. Notably, the C3 Tubarão-to-Qingdao route has yet to experience a rate rebound, despite a recent decline in the number of ballasters.

https://app.signalocean.com/dry/dynamic/timeseries_dry_downloadable

The end of November marked a significant downturn in dry bulk freight rates, with the Baltic Capesize Index plunging by 30% year-on-year. Similarly, the Baltic Panamax Index experienced a sharp decline of 50%. However, smaller vessel categories showed milder decreases, with the Supramax Index falling by 19%, while the Handysize Index demonstrated notable resilience, remaining relatively stable at the previous month’s levels.

In the Capesize segment, recent trends reveal a drop in the number of ballasters for the South Atlantic, continuing a downward trend over the last month. In contrast, ballasters for Western Australia have seen a recent upward trend. It is notable that C3 market rates are closely correlated with Capesize time charter average earnings, both of which continue to experience a downward trend. Despite the recent drop in South Atlantic ballasters, this has yet to significantly impact the C3 market, with tonne days from Tubarao to Qingdao not showing any recent spikes. Whether the ongoing decline in ballasters will lead to tighter vessel availability and a firmer market remains uncertain.

Meanwhile, the Chinese economy faces ongoing challenges, with trade tensions exacerbated by President Trump's pending tariffs. Trump has proposed an additional 10% tariff on imports from China, on top of previously announced tariffs exceeding 60% on Chinese goods. Domestic demand in China remains weak, with consumer prices at a four-month low and industrial output continuing to decline. October’s new home prices saw their sharpest drop in nine years. Despite these headwinds, there was some positive news in the iron ore market: prices for iron ore futures strengthened for the third consecutive session, driven by firmer steel output, despite the broader economic slowdown. The most-traded January iron ore contract on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange closed 1.08% higher at 792.0 yuan ($109.19) per metric ton. Additionally, recent data from the China Iron and Steel Association showed that China’s steel production has remained robust, with output over the past three weeks up 9.5% compared to the same period in the previous three years.

For the latest updates and insights, make sure to visit the Signal Ocean Newsroom page & subscribe to weekly reports. Click here to request a demo.

For subscription to our FREE weekly market trends email, please contact us: research@thesignalgroup.com

-Republishing is allowed with an active link to the source

Creating a sustainable world requires us to embark on a journey towards a zero emission future, where every step is a commitment to preserve our planet for future generations.
Albert Greenway
Environmental Scientist, Sustainability Expert
No items found.

Increased Use of Renewable Energy:

Shipping companies are embracing renewable energy sources to power onboard systems and reduce emissions during port operations. Solar panels and wind turbines are being installed on vessels to generate clean energy, reducing reliance on auxiliary engines, and cutting down emissions. Shore power facilities in ports allow ships to connect to the electrical grid, eliminating the need for onboard generators while docked.

Collaboration and Industry Partnerships:

Recognizing that addressing emissions requires collective action, shipping companies, governments, and organizations have formed partnerships and collaborations. These initiatives focus on research and development, sharing best practices, and promoting knowledge transfer. Joint projects aim to develop and deploy innovative technologies, improve infrastructure, and create a supportive regulatory framework to accelerate the industry's transition towards a greener future. The Zero Emission Shipping - Mission Innovation.

To pave the way for a greener future in shipping, the availability of alternative fuels plays a vital role in their widespread adoption. However, this availability is influenced by factors such as port infrastructure, local regulations, and government policies. As the demand for cleaner fuels in shipping rises and environmental regulations become more stringent, efforts are underway to improve the accessibility of these fuels through infrastructure development, collaborations, and investments in production facilities.

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) infrastructure has seen significant growth in recent years, resulting in more LNG bunkering facilities and LNG-powered vessels. Nonetheless, the availability of LNG as a marine fuel can still vary depending on the region. To ensure consistent availability worldwide, there is a need for further development of LNG supply chains and infrastructure. For biofuels, their availability hinges on production capacity and the availability of feedstock. Although biofuels are being produced and utilized in various sectors, their availability as a marine fuel remains limited. Scaling up biofuel production and establishing robust supply chains are imperative to ensure wider availability within the shipping industry.Hydrogen, as a fuel for maritime applications, is still in the early stages of infrastructure development. While some hydrogen vessels have been tested or introduced in the first quarter of last year, the infrastructure required for hydrogen production and distribution needs further advancement.

Ammonia, as a marine fuel, currently faces limitations in availability. The production, storage, and handling infrastructure for ammonia need further development to support its widespread use in the shipping industry.Methanol, on the other hand, is already a commercially available fuel and has been used as a blend with conventional fuels in some ships. However, its availability as a standalone marine fuel can still be limited in certain regions. Bureau Veritas in October 2022 published a White Paper for the Alternative Fuels Outlook. This white paper provides a comprehensive overview of alternative fuels for the shipping industry, taking into account key factors such as technological maturity, availability, safety, emissions, and regulations.

Creating a sustainable world requires us to embark on a journey towards a zero emission future, where every step is a commitment to preserve our planet for future generations.
Albert Greenway
Environmental Scientist, Sustainability Expert

Increased Use of Renewable Energy:

Shipping companies are embracing renewable energy sources to power onboard systems and reduce emissions during port operations. Solar panels and wind turbines are being installed on vessels to generate clean energy, reducing reliance on auxiliary engines, and cutting down emissions. Shore power facilities in ports allow ships to connect to the electrical grid, eliminating the need for onboard generators while docked.

Collaboration and Industry Partnerships:

Recognizing that addressing emissions requires collective action, shipping companies, governments, and organizations have formed partnerships and collaborations. These initiatives focus on research and development, sharing best practices, and promoting knowledge transfer. Joint projects aim to develop and deploy innovative technologies, improve infrastructure, and create a supportive regulatory framework to accelerate the industry's transition towards a greener future. The Zero Emission Shipping - Mission Innovation.

To pave the way for a greener future in shipping, the availability of alternative fuels plays a vital role in their widespread adoption. However, this availability is influenced by factors such as port infrastructure, local regulations, and government policies. As the demand for cleaner fuels in shipping rises and environmental regulations become more stringent, efforts are underway to improve the accessibility of these fuels through infrastructure development, collaborations, and investments in production facilities.

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) infrastructure has seen significant growth in recent years, resulting in more LNG bunkering facilities and LNG-powered vessels. Nonetheless, the availability of LNG as a marine fuel can still vary depending on the region. To ensure consistent availability worldwide, there is a need for further development of LNG supply chains and infrastructure. For biofuels, their availability hinges on production capacity and the availability of feedstock. Although biofuels are being produced and utilized in various sectors, their availability as a marine fuel remains limited. Scaling up biofuel production and establishing robust supply chains are imperative to ensure wider availability within the shipping industry.Hydrogen, as a fuel for maritime applications, is still in the early stages of infrastructure development. While some hydrogen vessels have been tested or introduced in the first quarter of last year, the infrastructure required for hydrogen production and distribution needs further advancement.

Ammonia, as a marine fuel, currently faces limitations in availability. The production, storage, and handling infrastructure for ammonia need further development to support its widespread use in the shipping industry.Methanol, on the other hand, is already a commercially available fuel and has been used as a blend with conventional fuels in some ships. However, its availability as a standalone marine fuel can still be limited in certain regions. Bureau Veritas in October 2022 published a White Paper for the Alternative Fuels Outlook. This white paper provides a comprehensive overview of alternative fuels for the shipping industry, taking into account key factors such as technological maturity, availability, safety, emissions, and regulations.

Ready to get started and outrun your competition?

Request a Demo