The first quarter of 2025 has shown mixed signals in China's dry bulk import profile, reflecting commodity-specific trends and the broader strategic shifts underway amid the U.S.-China trade war. The above charts reveal YoY volume comparisons for March 2025 vs. March 2024, highlighting divergent patterns in iron ore, coal, and grain flows to China.
Iron Ore from Brazil to China: +20.89% YoY (Mar25 vs Mar24)
The significant increase in iron ore imports from Brazil aligns with China's intensified urban renewal initiatives. According to the Chinese Ministry of Finance, the central government will continue to support urban renewal projects in 2025, focusing on addressing pressing concerns of the people and driving high-quality urban development. These projects, particularly in mega and super-large cities along key river basins, are expected to boost demand for construction materials, including steel, thereby increasing iron ore imports. Increased volumes from Brazil also underscore a preference for long-haul Capesize shipments, boosting tonne-mile demand and providing upward support to freight rates on routes like C3 (Brazil-China).
Coal from Indonesia to China: -18.35% YoY (Mar25 vs Mar24)
Coal flows present a markedly different narrative. The 18.35% year-over-year decline likely reflects a mix of tightening environmental regulations, volatile power sector demand in China, and evolving geopolitical dynamics. Notably, Indonesia has been deepening trade ties with the U.S. and India. While coal hasn't been directly targeted in the ongoing trade war, the realignment of global alliances may indirectly influence China’s import preferences.
In the first quarter of 2025, coal-fired electricity generation in China fell by around 4.7% year-over-year, despite a 1% increase in overall electricity demand. High domestic coal inventories and a drop in March imports suggest a pivot toward local sourcing, especially as domestic coal prices have hit four-year lows. Adding to this shift, Indonesia’s implementation of a benchmark coal price has made its exports less competitive in China.
Geopolitical considerations are further influencing these trade patterns. Indonesia’s commitment to boosting U.S. imports by up to $19 billion—including $10 billion in energy products—is part of a broader strategy to reduce its trade surplus with Washington and avoid future tariffs. This rebalancing could come at the expense of exports to China, particularly in the coal sector.
At the same time, China has voiced concerns over nations that appear to be aligning more closely with the U.S., warning of retaliatory measures if its economic interests are undermined. These developments highlight how shifting global alliances are shaping more and more of China's energy import decisions.
Grain from Brazil to China: +35.77% YoY (Mar25 vs Mar24)
Grain imports have soared, highlighting food security as a critical pillar of China's strategic trade calculus. With U.S. grain increasingly weaponised via tariffs and restrictions, China has deepened its agri-commodity trade with Brazil. The 35.77% increase in March aligns with seasonal procurement cycles but is likely amplified by the geopolitical imperative to decouple from American supply chains. This shift benefits the Supramax and Panamax segments engaged in transatlantic grain trade. It also reflects Beijing’s desire to preempt disruptions in a volatile trade environment. It underscores Brazil’s rising role as a key agri-export partner amid a realignment of global trade flows.
Geopolitics Steering Trade Routes
The data reveals a clear shift in China’s commodity sourcing strategy, driven not just by economic and seasonal factors but also by broader strategic realignments amid the ongoing trade war with the U.S. Iron ore and grain imports from Brazil are rising sharply, supporting long-haul dry bulk demand. In contrast, coal imports from Indonesia are falling, signalling a more selective or deliberately redirected approach to procurement.
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Albert Greenway
Environmental Scientist, Sustainability Expert
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Increased Use of Renewable Energy:
Shipping companies are embracing renewable energy sources to power onboard systems and reduce emissions during port operations. Solar panels and wind turbines are being installed on vessels to generate clean energy, reducing reliance on auxiliary engines, and cutting down emissions. Shore power facilities in ports allow ships to connect to the electrical grid, eliminating the need for onboard generators while docked.
Collaboration and Industry Partnerships:
Recognizing that addressing emissions requires collective action, shipping companies, governments, and organizations have formed partnerships and collaborations. These initiatives focus on research and development, sharing best practices, and promoting knowledge transfer. Joint projects aim to develop and deploy innovative technologies, improve infrastructure, and create a supportive regulatory framework to accelerate the industry's transition towards a greener future. The Zero Emission Shipping - Mission Innovation.
To pave the way for a greener future in shipping, the availability of alternative fuels plays a vital role in their widespread adoption. However, this availability is influenced by factors such as port infrastructure, local regulations, and government policies. As the demand for cleaner fuels in shipping rises and environmental regulations become more stringent, efforts are underway to improve the accessibility of these fuels through infrastructure development, collaborations, and investments in production facilities.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) infrastructure has seen significant growth in recent years, resulting in more LNG bunkering facilities and LNG-powered vessels. Nonetheless, the availability of LNG as a marine fuel can still vary depending on the region. To ensure consistent availability worldwide, there is a need for further development of LNG supply chains and infrastructure. For biofuels, their availability hinges on production capacity and the availability of feedstock. Although biofuels are being produced and utilized in various sectors, their availability as a marine fuel remains limited. Scaling up biofuel production and establishing robust supply chains are imperative to ensure wider availability within the shipping industry.Hydrogen, as a fuel for maritime applications, is still in the early stages of infrastructure development. While some hydrogen vessels have been tested or introduced in the first quarter of last year, the infrastructure required for hydrogen production and distribution needs further advancement.
Ammonia, as a marine fuel, currently faces limitations in availability. The production, storage, and handling infrastructure for ammonia need further development to support its widespread use in the shipping industry.Methanol, on the other hand, is already a commercially available fuel and has been used as a blend with conventional fuels in some ships. However, its availability as a standalone marine fuel can still be limited in certain regions. Bureau Veritas in October 2022 published a White Paper for the Alternative Fuels Outlook. This white paper provides a comprehensive overview of alternative fuels for the shipping industry, taking into account key factors such as technological maturity, availability, safety, emissions, and regulations.
Creating a sustainable world requires us to embark on a journey towards a zero emission future, where every step is a commitment to preserve our planet for future generations.
Albert Greenway
Environmental Scientist, Sustainability Expert
Increased Use of Renewable Energy:
Shipping companies are embracing renewable energy sources to power onboard systems and reduce emissions during port operations. Solar panels and wind turbines are being installed on vessels to generate clean energy, reducing reliance on auxiliary engines, and cutting down emissions. Shore power facilities in ports allow ships to connect to the electrical grid, eliminating the need for onboard generators while docked.
Collaboration and Industry Partnerships:
Recognizing that addressing emissions requires collective action, shipping companies, governments, and organizations have formed partnerships and collaborations. These initiatives focus on research and development, sharing best practices, and promoting knowledge transfer. Joint projects aim to develop and deploy innovative technologies, improve infrastructure, and create a supportive regulatory framework to accelerate the industry's transition towards a greener future. The Zero Emission Shipping - Mission Innovation.
To pave the way for a greener future in shipping, the availability of alternative fuels plays a vital role in their widespread adoption. However, this availability is influenced by factors such as port infrastructure, local regulations, and government policies. As the demand for cleaner fuels in shipping rises and environmental regulations become more stringent, efforts are underway to improve the accessibility of these fuels through infrastructure development, collaborations, and investments in production facilities.
Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) infrastructure has seen significant growth in recent years, resulting in more LNG bunkering facilities and LNG-powered vessels. Nonetheless, the availability of LNG as a marine fuel can still vary depending on the region. To ensure consistent availability worldwide, there is a need for further development of LNG supply chains and infrastructure. For biofuels, their availability hinges on production capacity and the availability of feedstock. Although biofuels are being produced and utilized in various sectors, their availability as a marine fuel remains limited. Scaling up biofuel production and establishing robust supply chains are imperative to ensure wider availability within the shipping industry.Hydrogen, as a fuel for maritime applications, is still in the early stages of infrastructure development. While some hydrogen vessels have been tested or introduced in the first quarter of last year, the infrastructure required for hydrogen production and distribution needs further advancement.
Ammonia, as a marine fuel, currently faces limitations in availability. The production, storage, and handling infrastructure for ammonia need further development to support its widespread use in the shipping industry.Methanol, on the other hand, is already a commercially available fuel and has been used as a blend with conventional fuels in some ships. However, its availability as a standalone marine fuel can still be limited in certain regions. Bureau Veritas in October 2022 published a White Paper for the Alternative Fuels Outlook. This white paper provides a comprehensive overview of alternative fuels for the shipping industry, taking into account key factors such as technological maturity, availability, safety, emissions, and regulations.
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